Anticipating Emerging Threats: What quantitative tools are needed to guide response?: Annual Scientific Workshop 12-13 May 2026
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Copenhagen 12-13 May 2026
Venue: Hotel Kong Arthur
Tuesday May 12
11:30 – 12:00 and 12:45 – 13:00 Registration at Hotel Kong Arthur meeting facilities
Nørre Søgade 11 (meeting room #616)
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12:00 – 13:00 Lunch at Restaurant La Rocca
(Address: Vendersgade 23-25. Located on the same block as both Ibsens Hotel and Hotel Kong Arthur: https://www.larocca.dk/en)
13:00 – 13:05 Welcome (Birgitte Freiesleben / Johanne Greibe)
13:05 – 14:15 Panel discussion with NPPMN’s steering committee (chair Lone Simonsen)
Which data, quantitative analysis and models were needed to make decisions in a crisis situation? How can we collaborate better at the Nordic level?
Panel members: Tyra Grove Krause, Preben Aavitsland and Tuija Leino
14:15 – 14:45 Coffee
14:45 – 15:20 Keynote speaker: Cécile Viboud (NIH, US), see page 4 (online):
Modeling to guide policy in times of war and peace: Experience from the US Scenario
Modeling Hub
15:20 – 17:00 Session 1 contributed talks, see page 4.
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17:00 – 18:00 Walk around The Lakes
19:00 Dinner at Restaurant Bådebroen, Peblinge Dossering 7.
(Located across Dronning Louises bridge: https://kaffesalonen.com/baadebroen/)
Wednesday May 13
A light breakfast will be available from 08:00 in the lounge next to the conference room.
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08:30 – 09:40 Thematic case: Was mass testing worth it? (chair Viggo Andreasen)
- Samir Bhatt (Imperial College/KU): A modellers view to mass testing
- Kaare Græsbøl (SSI): The case for mass testing: A Digital Twin simulation of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant in Denmark
09:40 – 10:00 Coffee
10:00 – 12:00 Session 2 contributed talks, see page 4. (chair Lasse Engbo Christiansen)
12:00 – 13:00 Lunch at Restaurant La Rocca (Address: Vendersgade 23-25. Located on the same block as both Ibsens Hotel and Hotel Kong Arthur: https://www.larocca.dk/en)
13:00 – 14:20 Session 3 contributed talks, see page 5. (chair Tom Britton)
14:20 – 14:40 Coffee
14:40 – 15:20 Session 4 contributed talks, see page 5. (chair Birgitte Freiesleben)
15:20 – 15:30 Update on the Network, possibilities for mobility etc. (Birgitte Freiesleben)
15:30 Farewell
Keynote
Cécile Viboud: Modeling to guide policy in times of war and peace: experience from the US Scenario
Modeling Hub
Abstract: I will present the experience of the US Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH), which has delivered multi-model ensemble projections to federal and local public health authorities since early 2021. Established during the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the rollout of vaccination strategies in the US, the SMH has since evolved into an operational platform providing seasonal projections for COVID-19, influenza, and RSV under a range of epidemiological and vaccination scenarios. To date, the Hub has conducted 28 rounds of projections, alongside periodic research-focused rounds aimed at strengthening modeling capacity and methodology. I will discuss how interactions with policymakers and other end users have evolved over time, and how the Hub has balanced the demands of real-time operational projections with longer-term methodological innovation in ensemble modeling.
Contributed talks
Session 1
Anna Suomenrinne-Nordvik: Building automated contact tracing data transfer in the FinSurveillance project
Fanny Bergström: Modelling avian influenza to support outbreak control decisions
Alix Vincent Thorn: Evaluating the strength of detection by a proxy method when both the dataset and the proxy method are low quality
Philip Gerlee: Evaluating infectious disease forecasts in a cost-loss situation
Nils Grimbeck: Diversity as a Forecasting Asset: A Wisdom of Crowds Perspective on Multi Model Infectious Disease Forecasting Ensembles
Session 2
Abbas K. Rizi: Heterogeneity in testing & vaccination behavior strongly shapes epidemic spreading patterns
Gerard Farré Puiggalí: Estimation of population-based Chlamydia trachomatis prevalence among 15-29 years old individuals in Sweden: a mathematical modelling study
Bjarke Frost Nielsen: Complex multiannual cycles of Mycoplasma pneumoniae: Persistence and the role of stochasticity
Tom Britton and Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba: The decline of epidemic growth and how it depends on population heterogeneities
Oskar Holmstedt: Reconstruction of Nosocomial Infectious Disease Outbreaks Using Bayesian Inference
Mikhail Shubin: Final Size and Ro in Population with both Spatiality and Assortative Mixing
Session 3
Simopekka Vänskä: Effectiveness and Feasibility of Quarantine and Isolation Measures
Hatef Darabi: Comparison between simulated scenarios and Swedish COVID-19 cases throughout the pandemic
Ida-Marie Johansson: Exploring the effects of contact tracing on COVID-19 in Oslo with an Agent-Based Model
Hilde Kjelgaard Brustad: Quantifying the impact of social activities on SARS-CoV-2 transmission using Google mobility reports
Session 4
Andreas Eilersen: Durability of vaccine-induced immunity against smallpox - lessons from the past
Rasmus Skytte Randløv: Diseasyverse: early quantification of disease drivers using ensemble models.