Assessment week 31
- Monitoring data and modeling show that the spread of infection is still at a low level.
- Following a decrease in reported covid-19 cases from week 13, there has been an increase in the number of reported cases in the last two weeks (196 cases in week 31 and 94 cases in week 30). Following a change in the quarantine provisions on entry from 15 July, there has been an increase in the proportion of cases infected abroad.
- The number of hospitalisations and admissions to intensive care units is still low.
The number of COVID-19 associated deaths have fallen weekly since week 15. The general mortality rate in the population is calculated to be normal in recent months.
- Mathematical modeling indicates an increasing spread of infection in mid-July. So far in the epidemic, it is estimated that about 0.7% of the population has been infected with covid-19.
The overall monitoring shows an increase in infection incidence last week, but still a low spread of covid-19 in the population (5.4 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last two weeks). New cases of covid-19 occur mainly around known cases and in connection with travel activity, local outbreaks and clusters. It is too early to conclude whether the increase in outbreaks in recent weeks is the beginning of an upward trend. Increased travel activity seems to cause somewhat increased import of infected cases, and mainly from countries where there is a manadatory quarantine upon entering Norway. This will be closely monitored in the future.
- Identified cases must be followed up in the municipalities through tracking of close contacts, isolation of those diagnosed with covid-19, high test capacity and implementation of quarantine according to current advice.
Summary week 31
A total of 9,323 cases of laboratory-confirmed covid-19 in Norway have been reported to MSIS. This corresponds to 174 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. In week 31, 196 cases were reported against 94 cases in week 30 (5,4 per 100 000 last two weeks). A total of 37 municipalities reported cases in week 31.
Up to and including week 31, 457,005 people had been tested for SARS-CoV-2, which corresponds to 8,5% of the population. In week 31, 27,291 were tested against 23,266 in week 30. The proportion of positive among those tested increased from 0.4% in week 30 to 0.7% in week 31. In the last week, the proportion of positive was below 0.9% in all age groups. The county overview shows that the proportion of positive samples was highest in Viken in week 30 (0.9%) and in Troms and Finmark in week 31 (3.9%). Persons registered in connection with outbreaks on cruise ships are currently registered with Troms and Finnmark as the county of residence. This can be adjusted.
In week 31, there were 87 people who are currently missing information about the country of infection, including the cases related to outbreaks on cruise ships outside mainland Norway. During the last two weeks, 122 (65%) of the 189 reported cases with a known place of infection have been infected in Norway, while 67 (35%) were infected traveling abroad. The proportion who were registered as infected after returning from abroad decreased from 50% (41 of 82) in week 30 to 26% (28 of 109) in week 31. Of the 67 who were infected on a trip abroad in weeks 30-31, 15 had traveled to countries which at the time of entry were exempt from quarantine ("green countries"), and 52 persons had traveled to countries that require quarantine upon entry into Norway.
- Information about known close contacts and place of infection is available for 119 cases infected in Norway in the last two weeks. Among these, 76 (64%) had had contact with a known case. The most commonly assumed place of infection was private household (52; 44%) job/university (9; 8%), travel companion (8; 7%), private event (6; 5%) and other (11; 9%). For 27 cases (23%), the place of infection was unknown. The majority of the cases infected in connection with cruise traffic reported in week 31 have not yet been registered with a place of infection and known close contacts.
- Several genetic subgroups of the SARS-CoV-2 virus have been detected in Norway. The largest proportion belongs to the genetic group B.1, which is also most widespread in Europe. The subcategory B.1.1 and sub-variants of this have lately been most common in Norway, but in mid-June, viruses in the subcategory B.1.5 caused an outbreak.
- From week 23, there has been an increase in the number of consultations for suspected, probable or confirmed covid-19 (ICPC-2 code R991 and R992) at the doctor and emergency room, but the number has decreased slightly in recent weeks. The number of consultations for other respiratory diagnostic codes has not changed much in recent weeks.
In surveys conducted in random samples of the population, the proportion who report having become ill with respiratory symptoms has fallen sharply from mid-March to early May, from over 20% to 5-6% among adults and from about 12% to 4-5% among children. In May and June, the proportion was stable at around 4-6% in adults and children, before a small increase in respiratory symptoms was observed in children in July, followed by an increase also in adults. At the end of July, disease with respiratory symptoms was reported among about 11% of children and 9.5% of adults.
- A total of 1,197 patients with proven covid-19 have been admitted to hospitals in Norway. For 984 persons (82%), covid-19 was the main reason for admission, of which 8 in week 31 against 3 in week 30. The number of new patients admitted per day with covid-19 as the main reason for admission has, with the exception of week 26, been 10 or fewer since week 20.
- One new patient with confirmed covid-19 was admitted to an intensive care unit in week 31. In weeks 25–31, a total of 7 patients were admitted to an intensive care unit.
- It is estimated that about 95% of all those who have been diagnosed with covid-19 are declared healthy. As a general rule, recovery is defined as being alive and not hospitalized 14 days after detection of covid-19.
- 256 covid-19-associated deaths (4.8 per 100,000) have been notified to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Of these, 222 (87%) were people born in Norway, while the rest have other countries of birth (16 different countries). For 1 death, the date of death was in week 31. The average age at death is 82 years.
- Based on results from mathematical models, the reproduction figure (R ) in Norway after 11 May 2020 is estimated to be 0.89 (0.71 - 1.05), slightly increasing compared with the estimate from last week. The model with a constant reproduction number since 11 May will be updated next week with a new change point before 1 July in order to better follow the latest developments. It is estimated that there have been a total of 33,000 - 42,700 infected Norway (of which approximately 24% have been diagnosed). With few new cases and admissions, there will be greater uncertainty in the reproduction rate.